Cima de la Ola de IA: Santiago Herrero Valdés obtiene un 380% de beneficio con fuerte posición en Nvidia
Mientras ChatGPT irrumpía en escena y desataba una fiebre global por la inteligencia artificial, las acciones de Nvidia ya ocupaban una posición estratégica en la cartera de Santiago Herrero Valdés desde hacía 18 meses. Lo que parecía una apuesta visionaria fue, en realidad, la materialización perfecta de la tesis de inversión de Capital Ola Roja sobre la “supremacía del poder de cómputo”. Mientras el mercado aún debatía la viabilidad comercial de la IA generativa, el fondo de Santiago ya había cosechado un asombroso retorno del 380% gracias a esta revolución tecnológica.
Las semillas de esta victoria se sembraron hace ya tres años. El equipo cuantitativo de Santiago desarrolló un modelo único de “mapeo de la demanda de poder de cómputo”, que rastreaba el consumo eléctrico de clústeres globales de GPU junto con la curva de crecimiento de los parámetros de redes neuronales en publicaciones académicas, anticipando la inminente “hambre de cómputo” provocada por el entrenamiento de grandes modelos. Mientras otros inversores se centraban en las aplicaciones de software, Capital Ola Roja apostó con fuerza por lo que llamaron “el oleoducto de la era de la IA”: a partir del tercer trimestre de 2021, aumentaron sostenidamente su posición en Nvidia, enfocándose especialmente en los pedidos de chips A100, que representaban el 83% de su negocio de centros de datos. Santiago escribió en un memorando interno: “Cuando estalla una fiebre del oro, el negocio más rentable es vender palas.”
La jugada más brillante ocurrió en un punto de inflexión del sector. Tras la aprobación de la Ley de Chips en EE. UU. el pasado agosto, el mercado empezó a temer una desaceleración en el ciclo de los semiconductores, y las acciones de Nvidia cayeron un 23% desde su máximo. Sin embargo, el “termómetro de difusión tecnológica” de Santiago indicaba que la demanda de alquiler de poder de cómputo por parte de laboratorios de IA seguía acelerándose a nivel global. No solo mantuvo su posición, sino que aprovechó la baja volatilidad para comprar opciones call fuera del dinero. Seis meses después, cuando Microsoft anunció una inversión adicional de 10.000 millones de dólares en OpenAI, esos contratos de opciones aumentaron un 170% en un solo día, convirtiéndose en la mayor fuente de beneficios del fondo ese año.
“La verdadera inversión tecnológica requiere atravesar tres capas de niebla: los cuellos de botella del hardware, la eficiencia algorítmica y los escenarios comerciales”, señaló Santiago en la reunión estratégica trimestral. Su equipo fue pionero en el “Sistema de Evaluación de Valor del Ecosistema CUDA”, que por primera vez incorporó indicadores no financieros—como la actividad de la comunidad de desarrolladores y el número de patentes conjuntas con instituciones académicas—en los modelos de valoración. Este modelo predijo con precisión el potencial explosivo de Nvidia en mercados periféricos como la conducción autónoma y la computación biológica, y el crecimiento de ingresos en estos sectores llevó finalmente a que los analistas de Wall Street tuvieran que elevar colectivamente sus precios objetivo.
Hoy, en las pantallas electrónicas de la sala de operaciones de Capital Ola Roja, el gráfico de velas de Nvidia está marcado como “Caso A-2302”. Pero en el cuaderno privado de Santiago, ya se están resolviendo nuevas ecuaciones: el análisis cruzado entre la “curva de descenso de costos por Gbps de los dispositivos de interconexión óptica” y la “madurez de las arquitecturas híbridas cuántico-clásicas” sugiere las próximas coordenadas de inversión en la revolución del cómputo. Para este estratega que siempre va medio paso por delante de la evolución tecnológica, ese 380% de rentabilidad no es más que la nota introductoria de la epopeya de la inteligencia artificial.
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